Table 3

Sensitivity and specificity for the prediction of various complications in multiple-trauma patients
Parameter (cutoff value)
 Predicted risk


Outcome
 Infection
 Sepsis/severe sepsis/septic shock
 SOFA score ≥12 within 21 days
 ICU stay >7 days


AUC (odds ratio, 95% CI) (P < 0.002), chi-square test
 Sensitivity/specificity (cutoff value)
 AUC (odds ratio, 95% CI) (P < 0.001)
 Sensitivity/specificity (cutoff value)
 AUC (odds ratio, 95% CI) (P < 0.002)
Initial procalcitonin (≥1 ng/ml)
 0.732 (-, not increased)
 93%/41% (0.62 ng/ml)
 0.805 (6.1, 2.5–15.7)
 90%/48% (0.53 ng/ml)
 0.798 (7.8, 2.8–21.9)


80%/59% (1.31 ng/ml)
80%/64% (0.97 ng/ml)


73%/60% (1.37 ng/ml)
70%/74% (1.36 ng/ml)
Initial C-reactive protein (>100 mg/l)
 0.564 (-, not increased)
 87%/37% (105 mg/l)
 0.674 (-, not increased)
 90%/30% (76 mg/l)
 0.639 (-, not increased)


80%/41% (111 mg/l)
80%/64% (104 mg/l)


73%/45% (122 mg/l)
70%/52% (121 mg/l)
Injury Severity Score (≥20)
 0.869 (1.3, 1.1–1.6)
 100%/61% (26.0)
 0.760 (10.6, 3.3–34.1)
 90%/54% (20.0)
 0.721 (7.0, 2.2–22.4)


80%/77% (31.5)
88%/54% (21.5)


73%/80% (34.0)
73%/70% (26.0)
Initial SOFA score (≥12)
 0.864 (11.6, 3.3–40.6)
 87%/68% (10.5)
 0.805 (6.0, 2.0–18.4)
 95%/42% (7.5)
 0.788 (4.9, 1.7–13.9)


73%/76% (11.5)
82%/70% (9.5)


67%/85% (12.5)
65%/78% (10.5)
APACHE II score (≥20)
 0.783 (13.1, 3.5–48.9)
 93%/39% (13.5)
 0.685 (-, not increased)
 90%/40% (12.5)
 0.678 (-, not increased)


87%/48% (14.5)
82%/46% (13.5)


73%/61% (15.5)
57%/66% (15.5)

APACHE, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation; AUC, area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic; CI, confidence interval; SOFA, Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment. AUCs were not significantly different among parameters, when compared with the statistical method of Hanley and McNeil (z < 1.88) for outcome [16].

Meisner et al. Critical Care 2006 10:R1   doi:10.1186/cc3910