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Measures of model calibration and discrimination in all admissions eligible for each model |
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| Model |
APACHE II |
APACHE III |
SAPS II |
MPM II |
ICNARC |
|
|
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| Eligible admissions, n (percent) |
8,344 (75.7) |
9,021 (81.9) |
8,220 (74.6) |
7,267 (65.9) |
10,285 (93.3) |
| AUC (95 percent CI) |
0.73 (0.72, 0.75) |
0.75 (0.74, 0.77) |
0.81 (0.80, 0.82) |
0.81 (0.79, 0.82) |
0.82 (0.81, 0.83) |
| Hosmer-Lemeshow C* |
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| χ2(10)a |
316 |
4542 |
162 |
99.5 |
94.6 |
| p value |
<0.001 |
<0.001 |
<0.001 |
<0.001 |
<0.001 |
| Cox's calibration regression |
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| Intercept (95 percent CI) |
-0.23 (-0.29, -0.18) |
0.44 (0.36, 0.52) |
0.09 (0.03, 0.15) |
0.27 (0.20, 0.34) |
0.18 (0.12, 0.24) |
| Slope (95 percent CI) |
0.66 (0.62, 0.70) |
0.58 (0.55, 0.62) |
0.86 (0.82, 0.90) |
1.00 (0.94, 1.05) |
0.97 (0.93, 1.01) |
| χ2(2) |
262 |
2,045 |
74.8 |
84.8 |
66.3 |
| p value |
<0.001 |
<0.001 |
<0.001 |
<0.001 |
<0.001 |
| Brier's score |
0.187 |
0.193 |
0.164 |
0.168 |
0.155 |
|
aNote that due to different sample sizes, the Hosmer-Lemeshow C*-statistic should not be directly compared between models. APACHE, Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation; AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; CI, confidence interval; ICNARC, Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre; MPM, Mortality Probability Models; SAPS, Simplified Acute Physiology Score. | |||||
Hyam et al. Critical Care 2006 10(Suppl 2):S2 doi:10.1186/cc5066 |
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