Table 3

Measures of model calibration and discrimination in admissions eligible for all models

Model

APACHE II

APACHE III

SAPS II

MPM II

ICNARC


AUC (95 percent CI)

0.74 (0.72, 0.75)

0.76 (0.75, 0.78)

0.81 (0.80, 0.83)

0.81 (0.80, 0.82)

0.84 (0.83, 0.85)

Hosmer-Lemeshow C*

χ2(10)

215

2,478

61.4

38.2

24.9

p value

<0.001

<0.001

<0.001

<0.001

0.006

Cox's calibration regression

Intercept (95 percent CI)

-0.26 (-0.33, -0.19)

0.50 (0.40, 0.60)

0.02 (-0.05, 0.10)

0.20 (0.12, 0.28)

0.17 (0.09, 0.26)

Slope (95 percent CI)

0.66 (0.62, 0.71)

0.61 (0.57, 0.65)

0.89 (0.84, 0.95)

1.04 (0.97, 1.10)

1.08 (1.02, 1.14)

χ2(2)

176

1,256

20.3

28.0

17.8

p value

<0.001

<0.001

<0.001

<0.001

<0.001

Brier's score

0.187

0.194

0.158

0.163

0.147


N = 5,393 (48.9 percent). APACHE, Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation; AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; CI, confidence interval; ICNARC, Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre; MPM, Mortality Probability Models; SAPS, Simplified Acute Physiology Score.

Hyam et al. Critical Care 2006 10(Suppl 2):S2   doi:10.1186/cc5066

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