Table 3

Measures of model calibration and discrimination in admissions eligible for all models

Model
APACHE II
APACHE III
SAPS II
MPM II
ICNARC

AUC (95 percent CI)
0.74 (0.72, 0.75)
0.76 (0.75, 0.78)
0.81 (0.80, 0.83)
0.81 (0.80, 0.82)
0.84 (0.83, 0.85)
Hosmer-Lemeshow C*





     χ2(10)
215
2,478
61.4
38.2
24.9
     p value
<0.001
<0.001
<0.001
<0.001
0.006
Cox's calibration regression





     Intercept (95 percent CI)
-0.26 (-0.33, -0.19)
0.50 (0.40, 0.60)
0.02 (-0.05, 0.10)
0.20 (0.12, 0.28)
0.17 (0.09, 0.26)
     Slope (95 percent CI)
0.66 (0.62, 0.71)
0.61 (0.57, 0.65)
0.89 (0.84, 0.95)
1.04 (0.97, 1.10)
1.08 (1.02, 1.14)
     χ2(2)
176
1,256
20.3
28.0
17.8
     p value
<0.001
<0.001
<0.001
<0.001
<0.001
Brier's score
0.187
0.194
0.158
0.163
0.147

N = 5,393 (48.9 percent). APACHE, Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation; AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; CI, confidence interval; ICNARC, Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre; MPM, Mortality Probability Models; SAPS, Simplified Acute Physiology Score.

Hyam et al. Critical Care 2006 10(Suppl 2):S2   doi:10.1186/cc5066