|
Measures of model calibration and discrimination in admissions eligible for all models |
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| Model |
APACHE II |
APACHE III |
SAPS II |
MPM II |
ICNARC |
|
|
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| AUC (95 percent CI) |
0.74 (0.72, 0.75) |
0.76 (0.75, 0.78) |
0.81 (0.80, 0.83) |
0.81 (0.80, 0.82) |
0.84 (0.83, 0.85) |
| Hosmer-Lemeshow C* |
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| χ2(10) |
215 |
2,478 |
61.4 |
38.2 |
24.9 |
| p value |
<0.001 |
<0.001 |
<0.001 |
<0.001 |
0.006 |
| Cox's calibration regression |
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| Intercept (95 percent CI) |
-0.26 (-0.33, -0.19) |
0.50 (0.40, 0.60) |
0.02 (-0.05, 0.10) |
0.20 (0.12, 0.28) |
0.17 (0.09, 0.26) |
| Slope (95 percent CI) |
0.66 (0.62, 0.71) |
0.61 (0.57, 0.65) |
0.89 (0.84, 0.95) |
1.04 (0.97, 1.10) |
1.08 (1.02, 1.14) |
| χ2(2) |
176 |
1,256 |
20.3 |
28.0 |
17.8 |
| p value |
<0.001 |
<0.001 |
<0.001 |
<0.001 |
<0.001 |
| Brier's score |
0.187 |
0.194 |
0.158 |
0.163 |
0.147 |
|
N = 5,393 (48.9 percent). APACHE, Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation; AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; CI, confidence interval; ICNARC, Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre; MPM, Mortality Probability Models; SAPS, Simplified Acute Physiology Score. | |||||
Hyam et al. Critical Care 2006 10(Suppl 2):S2 doi:10.1186/cc5066 |
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