Critical Care

official impact factor 4.60

Commentary

Even without our biases, the outlook for prognostication is grim

James Downar

Author Affiliations

University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Toronto East General Hospital, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Toronto General Hospital, 9N-926, 200 Elizabeth St, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M5G 2C4

Critical Care 2009, 13:168 doi:10.1186/cc7944

Published: 20 July 2009

Abstract

Physicians are biased and imprecise, but we are better at predicting mortality in the intensive care unit than any mathematical model currently available. But even if we were flawless prognosticators, we would still be left with the larger ethical problem of what to do with prognostic information. In order to translate prognosis into recommendation, we need to know about patient values.