Table 4 |
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|
Performance characteristics of APACHE II, SAPS II and ICNARC outcome prediction models |
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|
MODEL |
APACHE II |
ICNARC |
SAPS II |
|
|
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|
Eligible admissions, n (%) |
5767 (79.8) |
5767 (79.8) |
5767 (79.8) |
|
Observed mortality, n (%) |
613 (10.6) |
613 (10.6) |
608 (10.5) |
|
Predicted mortality, n (%) |
782.8 (13.6) |
729.0 (12.6) |
567.0 (9.8) |
|
|
|||
|
AUC (95% CI) |
0.63 (0.61 to 0.65) |
0.67 (0.65 to 0.69) |
0.65 (0.63 to 0.67) |
|
|
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|
Hosmer-Lemeshow C* |
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|
Chi-squared (10) |
90.8 |
29.6 |
295.7 |
|
P value |
< 0.001 |
0.001 |
< 0.001 |
|
|
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|
Cox's calibration regression |
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|
Intercept (95% CI) |
-1.01 (-1.22 to -0.80) |
-0.42 (-0.64 to -0.20) |
-1.12 (-1.30 to -0.95) |
|
Slope (95% CI) |
0.59 (0.48 to 0.69) |
0.88 (0.77 to 1.00) |
0.40 (0.33 to 0.47) |
|
Chi-squared (2) |
106.4 |
27.9 |
291.4 |
|
P value |
< 0.001 |
< 0.001 |
< 0.001 |
|
|
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|
Brier's score |
0.097 |
0.091 |
0.101 |
|
|
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|
The analysis is performed on those individuals meeting criteria for all three of the models. APACHE = Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation; AUC = area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; CI = confidence interval; ICNARC = Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre; SAPS = Simplified Acute Physiology Score. |
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Park et al. Critical Care 2009 13(Suppl 2):S1 doi:10.1186/cc7868 |
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