Abstract

General outcome prediction models developed for use with large, multicenter databases of critically ill patients may not correctly estimate mortality if applied to a particular group of patients that was under-represented in the original database. The development of new diagnostic weights has been proposed as a method of adapting the general model – the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II in this case – to a new group of patients. Such customization must be empirically tested, because the original model cannot contain an appropriate set of predictive variables for the particular group. In this issue of Critical Care, Arabi and co-workers present the results of the validation of a modified model of the APACHE II system for patients receiving orthotopic liver transplants. The use of a highly heterogeneous database for which not all important variables were taken into account and of a sample too small to use the Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test appropriately makes their conclusions uncertain.